Our Methodology

The FoodS³ platform consists of various data sources and models that enable us to simulate the movement of crops and livestock, connecting counties of production to counties of consumption. It models the distribution of crops from where they are grown to where they are used, and includes the entire supply and demand of each crop. FoodS³ also models the processing of those crops into components of animal feed and moves the animals from their farms and ranches to primary processing.

The result is a link between the upstream companies and the downstream landscape, tying together the supply chain and its environmental impacts.

Infographic showing connections from crops to animals and facilities, on stylized USA map background. At bottom are arrrows labeled "imports" and "exports", with text "all supply and demand is accounted for"

How Does FoodS³Work?

What's in the model?

Commodity Crops

Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Alfalfa

Livestock Animals

Beef Cattle

Dairy Cattle

Hogs

Broiler Chicken

Environmental Impacts

Water Use

We model the amount of irrigated water used in the production of each crop. We can also overlay that water use with areas of water scarcity within the US to better understand where high-crop irrigation intersects with chronic water shortages.

Land Use

We model the total land use for each crop and the average annual land conversion associated with each crop.

GHG Emissions

We model cradle-to-gate and cradle-to-grave life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for the crops and livestock included in our model. These emission estimates include the emissions associated with land conversion connected to each crop.

Processing Facilities

Ethanol Facilities ⇢ producing distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS)
Soy Crushers ⇢ producing soymeal
Wheat Mills ⇢ producing wheat middlings
Raw Milk Processing Facilities ⇢ producing pasteurized milk
Primary Meat Processing Facilities ⇢ producing beef, pork, and chicken meat

Visualizing Supply Chains with FoodS³

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Simple Supply Chain

Icon showing an ear of corn. Map of corn production in the US in shades of yellow, with a large yellow arrow going to a second map, labeled “corn to hogs” where lines connect different counties. Large pink arrow going to third map, labelled “Hogs to processing”, with shades of pink representing hog production by county and lines connecting to other counties. At the end of the chain is an icon of a pig, in pink.

The simplest supply chain is a straight line. Corn is grown in the yellow areas on the first map, and darker colors indicate higher production levels. That corn is transported to hog facilities at the endpoints of the lines in the second map. The third map shows hog production by county, with darker colors representing more hogs, and the lines lead to hog processing facilities.

Co-Product Supply Chain

2 rows of maps. The top row repeats the “simple supply chain”. The first map in that row has another arrow pointing to the first map in row 2: “corn to ethanol plants” showing corn production in yellow, with lines connecting to points for ethanol plants. An arrow points to a map labeled “DDGS to hogs” showing lines connecting ethanol plants to hog producing counties. A second arrow points to an icon of a factory, labeled “Ethanol”. A pink arrow points from “DDGS to hogs” to “hogs to processing” in row 1.

In reality, corn is fed to hogs directly - as in the first example - and indirectly as Distiller's Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS), a co-product of ethanol production. The top three maps here are the same as the first set, but below them we see corn production flowing to ethanol plants where it is used to produce ethanol and DDGS. The DDGS flows to hogs and - as before - hogs are transported to hog processing facilities.

Co-Product Supply Chain with Additional Crops

Previous figure, with a row added at the bottom. Bottom row has green icon showing a soybean, then a map of soybean production in green. An arrow points to map “Soybeans to crushers” showing lines connecting production to crusher facilities. From “soybeans to crushers” one arrow points up to the factory icon, now labeled “co-products” and another points to a map labeled “soymeal to hogs”. An arrow points back to “hogs to processing” in row 1.

We can also add other crops. In this case, soybeans are not fed directly to hogs but are first transported to soy crushers to be processed into oil and soymeal. Soy oil, like ethanol, is a co-product considered separately, while soymeal is fed to hogs.

Simple Supply Chain with Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Figure “simple supply chain” above is duplicated. Below it is a row with an icon representing GHG emissions. First map is labeled “Emissions from corn production” and shows county level emissions in shades of gray. An arrow, labeled “emissions from transport”, points to a second map, labeled “emissions from hog facilities” that also shows county-level emissions in grey. Another grey arrow labeled “emissions from transport” connects to a final map labeled “Emissions from hog processing”

One of the main reasons we are interested in tracking these flows through the supply chain is so that we can calculate environmental impacts at each stage and connect them to the final product. In this example, we return to the simplest supply chain, and show greenhouse gas emissions from corn production, from hog facilities, and from hog processing, as well as the emissions from transporting goods along the supply chain. While a processor may only be able to directly measure the emissions from their own facilities, the FoodS³ model provides a way to estimate the total emissions embedded in the final product.