Our Methodology
The FoodS3 platform consists of various data sources and models that enable us to simulate the movement of crops and livestock, connecting counties of production to counties of consumption. It models the distribution of crops from where they are grown to where they are used, and includes the entire supply and demand of each crop. FoodS3 also models the processing of those crops into components of animal feed and moves the animals from their farms and ranches to primary processing.
The result is a link between the upstream companies and the downstream landscape, tying together the supply chain and its environmental impacts.
What's in the model?
Commodity Crops
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Alfalfa
Livestock Animals
Beef Cattle
Dairy Cattle
Hogs
Broiler Chicken
Environmental Impacts
Water Use
Land Use
GHG Emissions
Processing Facilities
- Ethanol Facilities ⇢ producing distiller's dried grains with solubles (DDGS)
- Soy Crushers ⇢ producing soymeal
- Wheat Mills ⇢ producing wheat middlings
- Raw Milk Processing Facilities ⇢ producing pasteurized milk
- Primary Meat Processing Facilities ⇢ producing beef, pork, and chicken meat
Visualizing Supply Chains with FoodS3
Click on the different types of supply chains below to see examples of model outputs.
Simple Supply Chain
The simplest supply chain is a straight line. Corn is grown in the yellow areas on the first map, and darker colors indicate higher production levels. That corn is transported to hog facilities at the endpoints of the lines in the second map. The third map shows hog production by county, with darker colors representing more hogs, and the lines lead to hog processing facilities.
Co-Product Supply Chain
In reality, corn is fed to hogs directly - as in the first example - and indirectly as Distiller's Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS), a co-product of ethanol production. The top three maps here are the same as the first set, but below them we see corn production flowing to ethanol plants where it is used to produce ethanol and DDGS. The DDGS flows to hogs and - as before - hogs are transported to hog processing facilities.
Co-Product Supply Chain with Additional Crops
We can also add other crops. In this case, soybeans are not fed directly to hogs but are first transported to soy crushers to be processed into oil and soymeal. Soy oil, like ethanol, is a co-product considered separately, while soymeal is fed to hogs.
Simple Supply Chain with Greenhouse Gas Emissions
One of the main reasons we are interested in tracking these flows through the supply chain is so that we can calculate environmental impacts at each stage and connect them to the final product. In this example, we return to the simplest supply chain, and show greenhouse gas emissions from corn production, from hog facilities, and from hog processing, as well as the emissions from transporting goods along the supply chain. While a processor may only be able to directly measure the emissions from their own facilities, the FoodS3 model provides a way to estimate the total emissions embedded in the final product.
Are there plans for future updates and expansions to the model?
Better understanding requires ongoing innovation and improvement. That's why we are continually updating and improving the FoodS3 model.
Our current projects include:
- Updating the model with the 2022 agricultural census data
- Modeling feed flows to layer chickens
- Expanding the supply chain connections from primary processing to consumers
- Improving the soybean environmental impact factors
- Modeling the supply sheds of US exports